Tuesday, June 22, 2004

Cost of Living vs. Population Growth (A Rant)

I hope the housing prices come down someday in California but I doubt there will be a significant decrease in prices without a major event (earthquake, terrorism) which motivates people to leave the market.

There was an extensive article about the housing market in the LA Times a few months ago. Unlike the 1980s when the CA bubble market did reach a breaking point and burst, builders and developers today have been very careful not to overbuild and saturate the market with too many houses, thereby decreasing value.

That is not to say development hasn't continued. In fact, it's progressing at a higher rate than ever. However, the demand is so strong that builders usually don't have to start building until they have a buyer lined up. There are lines of buyers waiting to buy houses that haven't even been built yet!

The population of California is currently around 36 million people. That number is expected to almost double in the next 30 years. It increased by 4.2 million during the 1990s alone. That's a 12% increase! Surprisingly (or not) almost 100% of the population increase is due to immigration, particularly Latinos. Not only do they come to California, legally and otherwise, but they tend to have more children than other racial groups (an average of 3 children for every Latino mother). One in four Californians was born outside the United States.

In the United States, 50% of all children age 5 or under are Latino. And they just keep coming!! At more than 292 million people, the United States is the third-most populous country in the world, behind China and India. We will soon surpass 300 million and reach 400 million by the middle of this century. The United States is the only developed country (along with 7 other third-world countries) that will account for half of the planet's population growth between now and 2050, mostly due to the US's lax immigration policies.

I never thought I'd say this, but maybe Tom Tancredo is right! Maybe we should shut down the borders?!

In the meantime, start practicing your Spanish.

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