OK, here are my picks for the winners of the 78th Annual Academy Awards this Sunday, March 5th. I've included only the major categories and my favorites such as Best Original Score. I also offer my prediction for the winners and my personal choices.
If you don't have your own ballot yet, here are a printable PDF version and an html version.
It was a rather weak year for films, until the late fall season when a flood of really excellent films hit the marketplace. Or could it be that the first part of the year was so lame that even a mediocre movie released late in the year seemed good in comparison? Only time will tell.
BEST PICTURE
"Brokeback Mountain," "Capote," "Crash," "Good Night, and Good Luck," "Munich."
Will win: "Brokeback Mountain"
My pick: It's a "Brokeback" year without doubt. If any other movie wins the award, it will be a major upset. The momentum behind this film is indomitable and besides that, it's a darn good film. Great acting, directing, cinematography, music; it tells a heartrending, epic love story set in the American west; there's nothing not to love about this film. "Brokeback Mountain" is more than a movie -- it's a cultural phenomenon.
BEST ACTOR
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Capote"; Terrence Howard, "Hustle & Flow"; Heath Ledger, "Brokeback Mountain"; Joaquin Phoenix, "Walk the Line"; David Strathairn, "Good Night, and Good Luck."
Will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, and rightly so because he was and is always awesome! I admire Hoffman, especially for his work in P.T. Anderson's Boogie Nights and Magnolia. He's one of the best in the biz.
My pick: Heath Ledger. He dominated this film. What a wonderfully understated performance. He was so real and truthful that I'm actually a bit surprised the Academy even noticed him since there wasn't a lot of "pyrotechnics" in this type of role.
BEST ACTRESS
Judi Dench, "Mrs. Henderson Presents"; Felicity Huffman, "Transamerica"; Keira Knightley, "Pride & Prejudice"; Charlize Theron, "North County"; Reese Witherspoon, "Walk the Line."
Will win: Reese Witherspoon
My pick: Reese. This is not really fair since I haven't seen all the films in this category, but Reese is so popular in Hollywood for being a talented actress and an adorable person. She's consistently good in everything she does and she was great holding her own against Joaquin Phoenix in "Walk The Line."
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney, "Syriana"; Matt Dillon, "Crash"; Paul Giamatti, "Cinderella Man"; Jake Gyllenhaal, "Brokeback Mountain"; William Hurt, "A History of Violence."
Will win: George Clooney
My pick: Matt Dillon. This I think is the hardest category because all five are wonderful actors who gave excellent performances. Each of them deserves to win, but I think Clooney will walk away with it because he's a favorite in Hollywood and he's an actor who is also finding success as a director (nominated this year for "Good Night, and Good Luck") and that is a huge aphrodisiac to Academy voters. Giamatti was robbed last year for "Sideways" which he should have easily won. But that was last year. Jake won't upstage Heath for "Brokeback" and William Hurt's already won the Best Actor award for "Kiss of the Spider Woman" way back in 1986. First time nominee Matt Dillon is one of my all-time favorites and he's always been something of an outsider (no pun intended!), so I'm going with him. (Huh, I wish I were!)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, "Junebug"; Catherine Keener, "Capote"; Frances McDormand, "North Country"; Rachel Weisz, "The Constant Gardener"; Michelle Williams, "Brokeback Mountain."
Will win: Rachel Weisz.
My pick: Rachel Weisz. She's becoming the "It Girl" of the moment and she gave a standout performance in the mesmerizing "The Constant Gardener". Keener and Williams gave fine performances in their respective films, but nobody blew me away. I haven't seen the others, though Frances McDormand is always amazing.
BEST DIRECTOR
Ang Lee, "Brokeback Mountain"; Bennett Miller, "Capote"; Paul Haggis, "Crash"; George Clooney, "Good Night, and Good Luck"; Steven Spielberg, "Munich."
Will win: Ang Lee
My pick: Ang Lee. How can you have the best film of the year without being the best director of the year?! I know it's happened before (remember the Saving Private Ryan - Shakespeare in Love split back in '99?), but I'm not sure this is the year for an upset, especially considering how popular and respected Ang Lee is. Having said that, Paul Haggis is a contender because he won the screenplay award last year for the Best Picure "Million Dollar Baby." Miller did a great job with "Capote" and again Clooney is a Hollywood favorite. I haven't seen "Munich" yet, but considering it's a Spielberg film, it can't be that bad!
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana, "Brokeback Mountain"; Dan Futterman, "Capote"; Jeffrey Caine, "The Constant Gardener"; Josh Olson, "A History of Violence"; Tony Kushner and Eric Roth, "Munich."
Will win: "Brokeback Mountain", Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana
My pick: "Brokeback Mountain" All of these screenplays are worthy of the award, but I think "Brokeback" will continue its sweep of the major categories. Plus McMurtry is a long-time favorite (Lonesome Dove, Terms of Endearment, The Last Picture Show, Hud) and it was a notable achievement to take a short story, albeit an excellent one, and flesh it out into a full-length drama without spreading the story too thin.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco, "Crash"; George Clooney and Grant Heslov, "Good Night, and Good Luck"; Woody Allen, "Match Point"; Noah Baumbach, "The Squid and the Whale"; Stephen Gaghan, "Syriana."
Will win: "Crash", Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco
My pick: "Crash". A really tough category! I saw all of these except for the Woody Allen film and again each of them are deserving of recognition. But I think "Crash" walks away with it because the film did create a big splash and has had huge legs in Hollywood terms. The film was released almost a year ago and yet people are still discovering the film and talking about it. It impressed a lot of people. Plus, as mentioned above, Paul Haggis is hot now for his success last year with Million Dollar Baby.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Gustavo Santaolalla, "Brokeback Mountain"; Alberto Iglesias, "The Contant Garndener"; John Williams, "Memoirs of a Geisha"; John Williams, "Munich"; Dario Marianelli, "Pride & Prejudice"
Will win: "Brokeback Mountain"
My pick: "Memoirs of a Geisha" As much as I loved the music in "Brokeback Mountain" (I loved Santaolalla's work in The Motorcycle Diaries and Amores Perros), I have to go with my favorite John Williams and his wonderful score to "Memoirs of a Geisha." Williams is the best at enhancing character development through thematic music. In fact, no one can touch him in that regard. And although he's the hardest working man in movie music, with no less than FOUR feature scores this year (!), his music is always sincere and appropriate. I thought he did a wonderful job of blending western orchestrations with traditional Japanese instruments and themes.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Michael Becker and Kathleen "Bird" York, "In the Deep" - CRASH; Paul Beauregard and Jordan Houston, "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" - HUSTLE & FLOW; Dolly Parton, "Travelin' Thru" - TRANSAMERICA
Will win: "In the Deep", CRASH
My pick: "In the Deep", CRASH. This is mostly because I haven't seen the other movies! It's a big step for Oscar to recognize hip-hop music as a legitimate art form, but I don't think the Academy is quite hip enough to actually award a song with the word "pimp" in the title. Dolly Parton is a long-time popular favorite and previous Oscar nominee ("9 to 5") but she's never won an Oscar so this could be her year.
OK, that's far more information than anyone deserves to suffer through, so if you actually read this far you owe yourself a stiff drink! So break out the bubbly, get your ballots and pencils handy, and let's hope for an entertaining broadcast regardless of who wins or loses.
In the words of a dear friend, "Oh Oscar, who will your golden light shine upon tonight?!"
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